I would love to be a fly on the wall in the offices of the Republican National Committee and hear the deliberations that are going on there. The departure of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker from the nomination contest once more illustrates how Donald Trump is raging like a cuckoo in a sparrow’s nest among GOP candidates. Six months ago Walker was leading the polls, but in the most recent poll he was only an asterisk, with less than 1%. It is in part because Walker was a lousy candidate, with no money, no message and no personality, but it is mostly because three outsiders, each outrageous in their own way, have taken over the Republican Party. Its leadership now has to make a choice. If they’re going to gamble on one of the outsiders it has to be Carly Fiorina, the only one who has a remote chance of getting elected. Her main advantage is that she’s a woman who can talk, but it’s doubtful if that compensates for the many disadvantages that are now coming to light. If they’re going with one of the insiders I think it will be Marco Rubio. Bush is too prone to gaffes, Christie has too many problems in New Jersey, and Kasich still has to prove that he’s more than a very conservative version of Huntsman.
The internal struggles of the Republicans create an optimal climate for the Democratic nomination contest. Because of all the noise Trump, Carson and Fiorina are making there is barely any attention in the media for Hillary Clinton’s email problems anymore, and she can quietly sit on the sidelines and comment on every racial and xenophobic slur and anti-abortion statement a GOP contestant produces. The media coverage will come back in October, when she testifies before the House Benghazi committee, but her ‘responsibility’ for the killings at the US Consulate has already been debunked five times, and with regards to the emails she’ll just repeat that she’s sorry for having used a private server. In reality Hillary is about as sorry as someone who hits a bad golf shot or swings at a wicked forkball, and if you want to participate in a drinking game based on the number of times she’ll say ‘aboveboard’ you might as well check into the Betty Ford clinic now. It looks as if she has reached her low point in the polls, and she should be able to capture the nomination, even if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire. Of course things will be significantly easier for her if Joe Biden decides not to run.
In the Democratic Party the question has been raised if its candidates should have more debates, because the Republicans get all the attention now. It would be a big mistake, because most of the publicity the GOP candidates are getting is bad publicity. The Democrats should happily leave the media coverage to the Republicans at this point in time, knowing that Hillary doesn’t need more name recognition and that during the general election campaign there will be enough attention for their own candidate.
For the Republican Party, next to having three heavily flawed amateur candidates on top of the polls there is one hardly solvable problem. They’ll need a substantial percentage of the Hispanic vote, but Donald Trump has thoroughly alienated Hispanics from the GOP, and if the Republicans try to make nice to the Hispanics they’ll lose the rednecks and hicks they’ll also need to get their nominee into the White House.
Only Marco Rubio, a baby faced Hispanic with a redneck mentality, has a fighting chance to solve that problem. Since he’s smart enough to lay low and let his competitors slug it out the Democrats should start defining him as soon as possible as the hawkish neo-con with immoral positions on abortion and gay marriage that he is.